Truth in the News, Analysis & Commentary

In April 2008, NATO leaders gathered in Bucharest, Romania, to vote on a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for two applicant countries, Georgia and Ukraine. Despite strong U.S. support the applications were turned down due to insufficient support. The heads of states however were still adamant that “these countries will become members of NATO.”

That statement irritated the Kremlin as it was in violation of a much stated previous agreement with Russia. President Vladimir Putin has again and again repeated that NATO’s expansion to its Eastern borders poses unacceptable security threats to the Russian Federation.

Saakashvili’s Miscalculation

Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s President from 2004 to 2013 who had studied in the United States and Ukraine trusted implicitly in the west. Mistaking rhetoric for support he launched a foolhardy blistering artillery attack on Russian forces in disputed territory in 2008 during the Beijing Olympics. He thought he was already as good as being a NATO member with all its supporting might behind him. After a 5-day war with no support from the West Georgia’s ass was good and truly kicked. Russia and Georgia then signed a peace deal brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy with “Saakashvili gone” as one of Russia’s conditions for ending the war.

Saakashvili had made two grave miscalculations.

• He misunderstood western rhetoric for support
• He overestimated Georgia’s strategic importance to NATO and the west

Zelenski’s Miscalculation

Ukraine’s Zelenski was in no position to provoke Russia any further than he and his predecessors had already done. They had ignoring the Minsk agreement and since 2014 they shelled and bombed 13,000 Russian speaking separatists to death. Since the start of the conflict there have been 29 ceasefires but none of them have stopped the ongoing violence.

Zelenski should have learned from the mistake of Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s former president not to expect anything but rhetoric and trade sanctions from the west and not to provoke the Russian Bear.

• He misunderstood western rhetoric and overestimated western support
• He overestimated and oversold the importance of Ukraine to NATO and the West
• He misread Putin’s patience for weakness and ignored his many warnings thinking he was bluffing.

Obama’s Miscalculation

Underestimating Russia is nothing new. US President Obama’s terrorist proxies attempted destruction of Syria began on 15 March 2011 under the guise of the CIA orchestrated Arab Spring protests. The United States engaged directly in the conflict by supporting anti government forces primarily led by ISIS who at one stage controlled much of Syria and Iraq. Russia intervened primarily with airstrikes and carefully calculated military operations that led to the destruction of ISIS and the freeing of most of Syria.

• The Russian’s calculated destruction of the West’s proxy forces was neatly accomplished without engaging directly in combat with the Americans. This was miscalculated as Russian weakness.
• The Russian’s successful involvement in Syria was a carefully calculated show of their military capability and strength as well as a warning to the West that they could no longer get away with their campaign of replacing governments they disliked with client governments of their liking.
• Russia’s non direct engagement with American Forces in Syria was completely misunderstood as weakness rather than the resolute capability and the warning it carried.
• The Americans were incensed by the Russian thwarting of their Syrian adventure. They failed to learn from it mainly due to blowback from their intelligence services who told them what they wanted to hear. Their 2014 – same old game – replacement of the Ukrainian government is testimony to this.

The West’s Miscalculation

The Americans, NATO and the West in general continued to ignore Russia’s concerns about NATO’s expansionism towards the Russian Borders despite the warning they had received in Syria. They got away with this for years due to Russia’s perceived weakness following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Despite the growing evidence they failed to take into account Russia’s resurgence both economically and militarily under Putin. How could they have refused to see that Russia’s concerns were as valid as Americas were to Soviet missiles based in Cuba in 1962 that led to the Cuban Missile Crisis? Their enormous miscalculation is the primary cause of the war in Ukraine today.

• The overthrow of the pro Russian Ukrainian government in 2014 in the name of democracy was a huge miscalculation leading to the destabilisation of the region and leading directly to conflict and the present war.
• They misjudged and continue to misjudge Russian leadership and resolve by basing it on their own incompetent western standards.
• One more miscalculation on their part or on their proxy’s part could lead to a worldwide catastrophic war.

As the West wipes the egg off their collective faces, let us hope their jingoistic miscalculations have come to an end for all our sakes. NATO’s expansionism is the greatest threat there is to world peace. Their globalist agenda is about to fall apart one way or another and hopefully without any further miscalculations that could lead to complete global destruction.